The Fortunes of Civil Society Organisations Delivering Public Services

Client: Gradel Institute of Charity, University of Oxford

Civil society organisations are integral to the delivery of public services, yet little is known about the long-term impacts on the organisations themselves as a result of entering and exiting the commissioning process. This research, funded by the Gradel Institute of Charity at the University of Oxford, addresses that gap at a time when the UK Government is seeking to establish a new relationship with civil society that more deeply embeds it in tackling the country's social and policy challenges.

The project uses the UK Data Spine's linked administrative and procurement data to conduct the first large-scale quantitative analysis of the financial and organisational impacts of public service commissioning on civil society organisations. The analysis focuses on the effects of gaining and losing commissions on key indicators including income growth, staffing, reserves, and dissolution risk — and quantifies the multiplicative impact of public sector funding on other income sources such as donations. The quantitative analysis is complemented by interviews with the leaders of organisations sampled from across the distribution of impacts, to uncover the strategic and operational responses to gaining and losing commissions.

This project is currently in progress, with initial quantitative findings expected in early 2026 and a working paper to follow in summer 2026.

Methods: Longitudinal analysis of linked administrative and procurement data, causal inference, mixed methods (quantitative analysis and qualitative interviews)

Status: Ongoing (June 2026)